Candlestick Patterns Cheat Sheet — with Real Measured Win Rates
Most candlestick cheat sheets tell you what each pattern is supposed to do. This one tells you what the patterns actually did: every statistic below was measured by detecting each pattern across millions of historical forex candles and following what price did next. No textbook folklore, no borrowed stock-market numbers — measured results, sample sizes included.
How to read the table
- Bias — the direction the pattern is traditionally said to predict. The win rate is measured in that direction; neutral patterns (indecision candles) have no directional claim to score.
- Measured win rate — how often price moved the predicted way before moving equally far against it (an ATR-scaled race; timeouts excluded from the denominator). 50% = coin flip.
- Occurrences — how many times the pattern was detected. Trust the big samples; small ones are noise.
Read this first: the honest headline is that most raw candlestick patterns measure close to a coin flip — which matches published research. A pattern alone is rarely an edge; context (trend, regime, location) is where edges live. Any cheat sheet showing 70–80% win rates without sample sizes is selling you something.
The same measured numbers as a clean printable PDF. Leave your email and we'll let you know when the statistics are re-measured — or skip straight to the file.
Currently measuring 78 pattern-direction variants over 4,771,256 detected occurrences (pooled across pairs and timeframes).
| Pattern | Bias | Measured win rate | Occurrences | Avg move (pips) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spinning Top | Neutral | — | 497,709 | — |
| Short Line Candle | Neutral | — | 408,444 | — |
| Doji | Neutral | — | 377,035 | — |
| Long Legged Doji | Neutral | — | 369,592 | — |
| High Wave Candle | Neutral | — | 297,510 | — |
| Rickshaw Man | Neutral | — | 248,349 | — |
| Long Line Candle | Bullish | 47.2% | 240,033 | -0.5 |
| Long Line Candle | Bearish | 47.9% | 233,142 | -0.4 |
| Belt Hold | Bullish | 48.0% | 220,192 | -0.3 |
| Belt Hold | Bearish | 48.5% | 216,941 | -0.2 |
| Closing Marubozu | Bullish | 46.4% | 180,798 | -0.5 |
| Closing Marubozu | Bearish | 47.1% | 176,698 | -0.6 |
| Hikkake | Bearish | 50.8% | 99,317 | 0.1 |
| Hikkake | Bullish | 49.9% | 98,098 | 0.1 |
| Engulfing | Bearish | 48.3% | 88,603 | -0.3 |
| Engulfing | Bullish | 47.9% | 85,064 | -0.3 |
| Marubozu | Bullish | 46.5% | 72,689 | -0.5 |
| Hammer | Bullish | 48.7% | 71,983 | 0.0 |
| Marubozu | Bearish | 47.3% | 70,509 | -0.5 |
| Dragonfly Doji | Neutral | — | 54,062 | — |
| Gravestone Doji | Neutral | — | 53,634 | — |
| Harami | Bearish | 49.6% | 52,957 | -0.3 |
| Takuri | Neutral | — | 52,345 | — |
| Harami | Bullish | 49.6% | 50,926 | -0.1 |
| Three Outside | Bearish | 47.9% | 41,963 | -0.4 |
| Hanging Man | Bearish | 52.7% | 41,377 | 0.3 |
| Three Outside | Bullish | 47.9% | 40,551 | -0.2 |
| Matching Low | Bullish | 49.8% | 35,908 | 0.1 |
| Advance Block | Bearish | 50.7% | 29,178 | 0.2 |
| Hikkake (Confirmed) | Bearish | 47.6% | 28,853 | -0.3 |
| Hikkake (Confirmed) | Bullish | 47.8% | 28,473 | -0.6 |
| Inverted Hammer | Bullish | 52.2% | 17,406 | 0.4 |
| Shooting Star | Bearish | 50.1% | 16,333 | 0.1 |
| Harami Cross | Bearish | 49.5% | 14,760 | -0.5 |
| Harami Cross | Bullish | 50.8% | 13,898 | 0.4 |
| Doji Star | Bearish | 51.2% | 13,570 | -0.0 |
| Doji Star | Bullish | 50.5% | 13,501 | -0.0 |
| Separating Lines | Bearish | 48.2% | 9,820 | -0.4 |
| Three Inside | Bearish | 47.5% | 9,212 | -0.8 |
| Three Inside | Bullish | 47.6% | 9,013 | -0.5 |
| Evening Star | Bearish | 48.0% | 8,303 | 0.1 |
| Stalled Pattern | Bearish | 51.7% | 8,188 | 0.0 |
| Morning Star | Bullish | 47.1% | 7,773 | -0.4 |
| Up Down Gap Three Methods | Bearish | 50.7% | 7,381 | 0.4 |
| Up Down Gap Three Methods | Bullish | 50.6% | 7,371 | 0.6 |
| Separating Lines | Bullish | 47.9% | 6,325 | -0.6 |
| Thrusting | Bearish | 49.9% | 4,820 | 0.2 |
| Identical Three Crows | Bearish | 47.0% | 4,094 | -0.8 |
| Three Line Strike | Bullish | 49.1% | 3,741 | -0.4 |
| Three Line Strike | Bearish | 51.9% | 3,429 | 0.4 |
| Gap Side By Side White | Bullish | 46.9% | 3,035 | -0.6 |
| Evening Doji Star | Bearish | 48.5% | 2,808 | 0.1 |
| Homing Pigeon | Bullish | 53.9% | 2,739 | 1.0 |
| Morning Doji Star | Bullish | 47.9% | 2,737 | -0.5 |
| Dark Cloud Cover | Bearish | 47.1% | 2,423 | -0.6 |
| Three White Soldiers | Bullish | 46.3% | 2,296 | -0.6 |
| Piercing | Bullish | 47.5% | 2,230 | 0.0 |
| On Neck | Bearish | 47.5% | 1,242 | -0.9 |
| Hikkake Modified | Bearish | 50.4% | 1,207 | -1.4 |
| Hikkake Modified | Bullish | 48.1% | 1,202 | 1.1 |
| In Neck | Bearish | 47.9% | 971 | -0.9 |
| Tasuki Gap | Bearish | 48.5% | 745 | -0.8 |
| Tasuki Gap | Bullish | 45.5% | 595 | -2.3 |
| Tristar | Bullish | 50.7% | 578 | -1.6 |
| Gap Side By Side White | Bearish | 51.5% | 548 | -0.6 |
| Tristar | Bearish | 45.6% | 513 | 0.3 |
| Stick Sandwich | Bullish | 51.3% | 511 | -0.1 |
| Unique Three River | Bullish | 50.4% | 438 | 1.2 |
| Rise Fall Three Methods | Bearish | 46.9% | 437 | 0.1 |
| Three Black Crows | Bearish | 43.5% | 406 | -2.0 |
| Hikkake Modified (Confirmed) | Bearish | 43.7% | 374 | -2.6 |
| Hikkake Modified (Confirmed) | Bullish | 53.2% | 367 | -0.4 |
| Rise Fall Three Methods | Bullish | 45.7% | 363 | -3.2 |
| Ladder Bottom | Bullish | 43.7% | 314 | -0.8 |
| Two Crows | Bearish | 52.5% | 102 | 1.2 |
| Counterattack | Bearish | 41.9% | 88 | -3.0 |
| Counterattack | Bullish | 40.3% | 84 | -7.4 |
| Breakaway | Bearish | 40.6% | 32 | 6.0 |
Methodology
Patterns are detected with standard TA-Lib rules over historical OHLC forex data across 28 currency pairs and 8 timeframes. For each occurrence, the outcome is scored as a race: did price travel one ATR in the predicted direction before traveling one ATR against it? Wins divided by (wins + losses) is the measured win rate; races that time out are excluded from the denominator rather than counted as either side. Pooled rows aggregate all pairs and timeframes; rows with fewer than 30 occurrences are hidden as statistically meaningless.
Want the same numbers per pair and timeframe, with real chart examples of each occurrence? That is the app's Candlestick Patterns section — the free tier includes it. And if you want to know whether a pattern-based strategy holds up, that is what backtesting is for.
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